Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol is warm for late July, but the market is still pricing in no chance of an extreme spike above the relevant range. The July climatology for Amsterdam centres on average highs around 22–23°C, with typical daily highs in the low 70s Fahrenheit and occasional stronger summer warmth rather than sustained heatwaves.[8][10][12][13] That makes a 0% implied probability broadly consistent with the city’s normal profile unless synoptic conditions shift sharply in the final hours.

The main historical reference point is that Amsterdam’s late-July extremes do exist, but they are rare and usually tied to broader Dutch heatwaves. Amsterdam’s recorded highs have reached the mid-30s Celsius in recent years, including 36.4°C on 26 July 2019 and 35.8°C on 1 July 2025, while the Netherlands’ all-time national high stands at 40.7°C set at Gilze-Rijen in July 2019.[14] Against that backdrop, a market resolving on the day’s highest temperature at Schiphol needs not just a warm afternoon, but a genuine heat event at one of the region’s more exposed stations.

For the next few hours, traders should watch the short-range forecast, cloud cover, wind direction and any convective showers affecting the airport’s afternoon maximum. Current forecast guidance points to roughly 26°C with breezy south-westerly winds and only a low chance of drizzle, which supports a warm but not exceptional outcome.[3] If later model updates or airport observations trend hotter than expected, the highest reading could still lift within the settlement window, but there is no sign in the available forecasts of a late-day heat surge.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.