Masoud Pezeshkian out by 2026?

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Market context

Iran's political system has experienced significant turbulence over the past 48 hours, with renewed tensions between hardline factions and reformist elements within government circles. Pezeshkian, who assumed office in August 2023 following the death of Ebrahim Raisi, faces mounting pressure from conservative power brokers who view his diplomatic overtures and economic pragmatism as insufficient. Recent parliamentary manoeuvres and statements from the Guardian Council suggest an intensifying power struggle that could accelerate timelines for presidential succession or forced removal.

Historical precedent offers limited but instructive examples. Iran's last presidential transition occurred through Raisi's helicopter crash in May 2023, which forced an election within 50 days. Before that, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's presidency ended through electoral defeat in 2013 rather than removal. The constitutional framework permits impeachment through parliamentary vote, though this requires sustained supermajority support and Supreme Leader approval—a high bar that has rarely been cleared. The 42% probability reflects genuine uncertainty about whether internal factions can coordinate sufficiently to trigger formal removal versus maintaining the status quo through 2026.

Traders should monitor three specific catalysts: announcements from the Guardian Council regarding parliamentary confidence votes, any public statements from Supreme Leader Khamenei's office redefining presidential authority, and economic data releases that might trigger domestic unrest. The next scheduled parliamentary session in late January will be critical for assessing whether hardliners possess sufficient votes for procedural action. International sanctions developments and oil price movements also influence domestic political stability, as economic deterioration historically accelerates elite conflict in Tehran.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.