Highest temperature in Wellington on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington's maximum temperature on 25 July 2026 will be recorded at the airport weather station and resolved against historical data from Wunderground. July sits firmly within Wellington's winter season, when the city experiences its coldest conditions of the year. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal engagement with this particular settlement window.

Wellington's July temperatures typically range between 8–13°C, with daily highs rarely exceeding 15°C during the month. Historical records show the airport station has recorded maximums as low as 6°C and occasionally reaching 17–18°C on warmer winter days, though such extremes remain uncommon. The current crowd assessment reflects this seasonal consistency—winter weather patterns in Wellington are relatively predictable, reducing uncertainty around which temperature bracket will resolve.

The key variable remains atmospheric conditions in the days immediately preceding 25 July. Southern Ocean pressure systems and frontal activity drive Wellington's winter variability; a deep low-pressure system tracking across the Tasman Sea could suppress temperatures below the typical range, whilst a blocking high-pressure pattern might allow warmer air to persist. MetService forecasts and synoptic charts released in early July will provide the clearest indication of which temperature band becomes most likely. Traders should monitor these forecasts from mid-July onwards, as they typically gain accuracy within 10 days of the target date.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.