Highest temperature in Taipei on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

A typhoon is currently sweeping across Taipei, delivering heavy rain and suppressing temperatures at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station. This severe weather system, which moved through Friday afternoon into Saturday morning, has driven the current high to just 27.8°C with 93% humidity, effectively ruling out any extreme heat event for today [7]. The market’s 0% probability for a high-temperature outcome reflects this immediate reality, as the storm front prevents the clear, stagnant conditions typically required for record-breaking July heat.

Historically, July is Taipei’s hottest month, with average highs at Songshan Airport reaching 33.3°C (92°F) and temperatures rarely exceeding 35.6°C (96°F) [3]. In contrast, the resolved market for July 10 showed a 100% probability for 33°C, indicating traders expected typical summer intensity before the typhoon arrived [2]. The current 0% probability for high temperatures aligns with the historical precedent that typhoons drastically lower daily maximums, often keeping highs near 28–29°C rather than the 30°C+ range seen in calm July periods [1].

Traders should monitor the typhoon’s exit timeline and the Central Weather Administration’s hourly updates for Saturday afternoon, as a rapid clearing could allow temperatures to rebound toward 30°C by evening [7]. The settlement depends entirely on the Wunderground record for all times on 11 July, meaning even a late-afternoon spike could shift odds if the storm dissipates quickly [1]. AccuWeather forecasts heavy rain continuing through Saturday afternoon with a maximum of 29°C, suggesting the window for a significant temperature rise is narrow and dependent on the storm’s departure speed [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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