Highest temperature in Singapore on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Singapore is in its usual hot, humid July pattern, with forecast daily highs around 84°F to 90°F, or roughly 29°C to 32°C, and overnight lows near 78°F to 81°F.[1] Recent market pricing still leans towards a peak in the low 30s Celsius, with **31°C** the current frontrunner and **30°C** close behind, which is consistent with the city’s narrow temperature range in midsummer.[3]

Historical and comparable weather data suggest that a **0% YES** price needs a clear rethink only if there is an unusual warm spike. July highs in Singapore typically sit around 88°F to 89°F, with daytime temperatures rarely exceeding 91°F to 93°F, or about 33°C to 34°C.[2][7] That makes outcomes above the low 30s possible but not the base case, especially at an airport station where sea-breeze and convective showers can cap extremes. Singapore’s climate is equatorial, so humidity and rainfall remain part of the setup even when sunshine is plentiful.[10][11]

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s actual heat build-up at Singapore Changi Airport and whether cloud cover or showers limit the afternoon maximum before the market’s 12:00 UTC settlement window closes. Singapore’s weather is often shaped by short, heavy rain bursts in the early afternoon, and July sits in the Southwest Monsoon period, when wind and showers can interrupt heating.[7] The key read-through is simple: if the morning starts warm and skies stay relatively open into local midday, the highest observed temperature can reach the low 30s Celsius; if showers arrive earlier, the peak is more likely to stay compressed around 30°C.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Singapore on July 27? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.