Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen's August heat will peak on 12 August 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Bao'an International Airport determining settlement. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's temperature range to fall below actual conditions, though without visibility on which specific range options are available, the current odds reflect either extreme confidence in a particular threshold or minimal trading activity.

Shenzhen experiences consistent summer temperatures in early August, with daily highs typically between 32–35°C. Historical data from the past decade shows August 12 specifically has recorded highs ranging from 31°C to 34°C, with 2023 reaching 33.8°C and 2022 peaking at 32.1°C. The airport station's readings tend to run slightly cooler than urban areas due to proximity to water and airport infrastructure, making extreme readings above 36°C uncommon for this date, though not unprecedented during particularly intense heat waves.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during early August 2026, as storm systems can either suppress temperatures through cloud cover and rainfall or intensify heat through atmospheric pressure changes. The China Meteorological Administration typically issues 10-day forecasts by 1 August, providing the most reliable guidance for regional temperature patterns. Any significant weather system tracking towards the Pearl River Delta would shift probability substantially, as would unusual atmospheric blocking patterns that concentrate heat. Settlement depends entirely on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table from Bao'an station, which updates continuously throughout the day.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

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Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

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