Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen has entered the opening hours of August in its hottest season, with August normals clustering around the low 30s Celsius and daily highs commonly near 31–32°C, while some climatology sources put typical early-August peaks even higher on the hottest days. Historical guides also show that the city can push well beyond average summer heat, with a recorded August extreme of 103°F (about 39.4°C), so a 0% crowd probability looks more like a statement about current pricing than about the physical possibility of a hot reading.[2][4][6][8]

For comparison, Shenzhen’s late-summer profile is usually dominated by heat and humidity rather than sharp day-to-day swings, which means the upper end of the range is often decided by whether the afternoon cloud cover breaks and whether rain arrives early enough to cap the maximum. August is also within the broader typhoon-and-rain season, and several travel-weather sources note that storms and heavy showers are common enough to interrupt the daily temperature build-up.[8][12][18]

What matters intraday is the live forecast for Shenzhen Bao’an, especially the morning cloud/rain signal, any tropical system tracking into southern China, and whether the airport station gets a full sun window before 12:00 UTC. The market settles on the highest temperature recorded on the station’s Wunderground history page for that date, so traders are watching for updates that shift the expected midday peak rather than the overnight minimum.[1][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

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On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.