Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's weather on 18 July 2026 will be determined by the monsoon circulation pattern and any tropical systems tracking through the East China Sea during mid-summer. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full diurnal cycle at Pudong International Airport Station. Current crowd pricing at 0% reflects either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or minimal trading activity on this particular outcome.

Historical July temperatures at Shanghai Pudong show a consistent pattern: daily highs typically range between 32–35°C during the core monsoon season, with occasional excursions to 36–37°C during heat waves. The 30-year average high for mid-July sits around 32.5°C. Extreme readings above 38°C are rare but documented; the station recorded 40.9°C in August 2013 during a notable heat event. The 0% probability assigned to this market's specific resolution bracket suggests traders have already concentrated their positions elsewhere, or the range in question sits outside historical norms for this date.

Catalysts shaping the outcome include the position of the Pacific subtropical high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific. The China Meteorological Administration issues 10-day forecasts regularly; their mid-July outlook will clarify whether anomalous heat or cooler-than-normal conditions are expected. Sea surface temperatures in the East China Sea and atmospheric moisture availability will determine whether convective systems develop, potentially moderating afternoon peaks.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 18? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.