Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 6?

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Market context

Shanghai is starting the session with a hot, humid forecast and no obvious sign of a cool-down large enough to pull the day’s maximum far below seasonal norms. Current outlets are pointing to highs in the mid-30s Celsius for today, with temperatures around \(33\)–\(36^\circ\)C and only scattered shower risk, while the broader August climate profile in Shanghai is typically very warm and muggy, with average highs near \(31\)–\(34^\circ\)C depending on the source.[2][3][7][18]

That makes the market’s **0% YES** crowd price look detached from the weather setup rather than anchored in it. For context, Shanghai’s August highs usually sit in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius, and today’s forecast is already at or above that band; on a station-specific basis, even a modestly cooler city-wide reading can still leave Pudong Airport well above the low-temperature ranges implied by a zero-probability view.[1][7][8] The key framing is that the market resolves on the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, not the city average, so brief midday heating matters more than overnight conditions.[1]

Traders should watch the timing and intensity of showers, cloud cover and any thunderstorm development through the afternoon, because those are the main factors that can cap the station’s daily high. The available forecasts show only passing showers or light rain risk, alongside strong heat and humidity, which usually supports a late-morning or early-afternoon peak before cloud build-up limits further ascent.[2][14][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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