Highest temperature in Seoul on May 31?

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Market context

Seoul's maximum temperature on 31 May 2026 will be determined by atmospheric conditions during late spring, when the Korean peninsula typically transitions toward early summer warmth. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific threshold ranges available or treating this as a calibration exercise ahead of the settlement window in May 2026.

Historical May temperatures in Seoul recorded at Incheon International Airport show considerable variability depending on weather patterns. Late May averages around 24–26°C for daily highs, though readings regularly exceed 28°C when high-pressure systems dominate. The range of possible outcomes—likely spanning from the low 20s to low 30s Celsius—reflects Seoul's susceptibility to both cool northeasterly flows and warm southwesterly air masses during this transitional period. Comparable years with similar atmospheric setups provide the primary reference for assessing probability distributions across temperature bands.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting updates from the Korea Meteorological Administration as May 2026 approaches, particularly any signals about the North Pacific high-pressure system's positioning and strength. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the preceding months could influence broader temperature tendencies. The actual settlement will depend entirely on Wunderground's historical data pull from Incheon station on 1 June 2026, making real-time observation accuracy the critical dependency. No announcements or policy changes affect this outcome—only atmospheric physics and measurement records matter.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.