Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13?

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Market context

Seoul's weather on 13 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport, where the highest temperature recorded throughout that day determines the settlement. The 1% implied probability suggests traders expect temperatures to remain below the lowest resolution threshold, though early June in the Seoul metropolitan area typically brings warm conditions as the region transitions into summer.

Historical data from Incheon shows June temperatures consistently range between 20–28°C, with occasional peaks above 30°C during heat waves. The airport station's readings tend to run slightly cooler than central Seoul due to proximity to coastal influences, but the site remains representative of broader conditions across the capital region. Previous years' June 13th records provide limited direct comparison, yet the seasonal pattern indicates mid-June sits at the boundary between late spring warmth and early monsoon activity, when atmospheric conditions can shift rapidly.

The primary catalyst affecting this market will be the East Asian weather pattern developing in early June 2026, particularly the positioning of the North Pacific high-pressure system and any tropical systems moving northward from Southeast Asia. South Korea's Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts by early June that would clarify whether anomalous heat or cooler, wetter conditions dominate mid-month. Any significant deviation from normal seasonal progression—such as an early heat dome or early monsoon onset—would materially shift expectations for that specific date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.