Highest temperature in Seoul on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is entering the peak of its monsoon season, where July typically delivers hot, humid days with frequent heavy rain that can temporarily suppress maximum temperatures. The current 0% probability for a specific outcome reflects market uncertainty rather than a settled forecast, as historical data shows daily highs in Seoul for July 2026 ranging between 27°C and 32°C, with occasional spikes toward 38°C following frontal system shifts[2][6]. Past years demonstrate that while the average high sits near 27°C, intense solar radiation after rain clearance can push temperatures significantly higher, creating a volatile range that traders must weigh against the dampening effect of the Jangma rains[4][5].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for frontal system movements, as these dictate whether rain clears to allow heat buildup or persists to cap temperatures[10]. Recent reports indicate that Korea is already experiencing July-like heat in early June, with temperatures hitting 32°C, suggesting the season may be arriving earlier than usual and increasing the risk of extreme highs[9]. The critical dependency is the timing of the rain: if the monsoon breaks early in the week, the “feels like” temperature could soar above 34°C due to humidity, whereas sustained rainfall will likely keep highs in the mid-20s[4]. Watch for the Sinchon Water Gun Festival announcements in late July, which may signal broader weather patterns, though the immediate catalyst is the daily 14:00 medium-range forecast update[4][10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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FAQ

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