Highest temperature in Paris on June 6?

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Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport recorded a high of 28°C on 6 June 2025, placing that date in the warmer portion of early summer but well short of the station's June extremes. The 0% crowd probability reflects the settlement window closing at midday on 6 June 2026, meaning only morning and early afternoon temperatures will count toward resolution. This timing constraint eliminates the daily peak that typically occurs in late afternoon, structurally limiting how high the recorded maximum can climb.

Historical data from Paris-Le Bourget shows June highs ranging from 17°C in cooler years to 32°C during heat waves, with an average around 24–25°C. The station's record for any June day stands at 37.6°C (set in 2022), though such extremes remain rare. A typical early June day sees temperatures peak between 22–27°C unless an Atlantic low-pressure system stalls overhead or a continental high-pressure ridge pushes northward from the Mediterranean.

Traders should monitor European weather models from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in the week preceding 6 June 2026. The critical variable is whether a high-pressure system establishes itself over western Europe in early June, which would favour warmer conditions. Any significant low-pressure trough moving across the continent would suppress temperatures. Given the midday settlement window, even a forecast high of 26–28°C becomes material to the outcome, as morning readings typically run 5–8°C cooler than afternoon peaks.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.