Highest temperature in Paris on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris is locked into an intense heatwave today, with temperatures already climbing toward 40°C as a heat dome settles over the region, making the market’s 0% YES probability for any outcome below 30°C appear misaligned with current conditions[8][9]. The crowd currently favours 33°C at 53%, with 32°C as the next closest outcome at 30%, reflecting a collective view that peak highs will sit in the low-to-mid 30s despite forecasts suggesting potential spikes near 39–40°C[1][9].

Historically, Paris has recorded highs above 40°C only a handful of times, with the most recent extreme occurring in July 2019 when temperatures reached 42.6°C at Montsouris, though Paris-Le Bourget typically records slightly lower peaks[9]. This July 2026 heat event is already significantly warmer than the long-term average of 25°C for daytime maximums, with forecasts indicating sustained highs between 36°C and 39°C over several consecutive days[4][9]. The current 0% probability for lower ranges ignores this sustained anomaly, while the 53% weighting on 33°C may underestimate the likelihood of a 37–39°C peak if the heat dome persists.

Traders should monitor Météo-France’s daily red alert updates and the projected arrival of cooler Atlantic air by the end of the week, which could drop temperatures below 30°C and alter settlement outcomes[9][10]. The key dependency is whether the heat dome remains stable through July 16; any shift in wind direction or cloud cover could rapidly change the day’s peak temperature. Recent reports confirm the heat is returning with peaks near 36°C earlier in the week, suggesting the current trajectory remains hot unless Atlantic relief arrives sooner than forecast[10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.