Highest temperature in Paris on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris is bracing for another day of extreme heat as the 2026 European heatwave continues to grip western Europe, with traders now pricing in a 48% chance of a 35°C peak and a 47% probability of 36°C for 12 July at Paris-Le Bourget [1]. The current 0% implied probability for a "YES" outcome on any specific high-temperature threshold reflects the market’s focus on range-based resolution rather than a binary event, while the crowd’s confidence in the 35–36°C band aligns with recent daily highs in the region [1][2].

Historically, July temperatures in Paris have rarely exceeded 38°C, but the 2026 heatwave has shattered that norm, with Paris hitting 40.9°C on 23 June—the highest June record since 1947—and Barcelona reaching 40.5°C on 8 July [4]. This context suggests that while 35–36°C is the market’s frontrunner, the possibility of a spike above 37°C remains non-trivial given the persistence of record-breaking conditions across France and Spain [4][5].

Traders should monitor Météo-France’s daily heat alerts and Wunderground’s real-time updates for Paris-Le Bourget, as the settlement source relies exclusively on that station’s highest recorded temperature for the day [1][4]. A shift in the heatwave’s eastward trajectory, as forecasted to impact Central Europe later this week, could moderate Parisian temperatures by Sunday, but any delay in the cooling trend may push the peak higher [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.