Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

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Market context

The 0% crowd-implied probability for a lower temperature range on 26 June 2026 at LaGuardia Airport reflects a decisive market shift following the confirmation of a scorching heatwave gripping the Northeast over the past 48 hours. Traders landed here seeking immediate clarity on why the market now assigns near-certainty to the 82–83°F range, a move triggered by the latest National Weather Service climatological data showing daily highs surging well above seasonal averages with oppressive humidity limiting overnight cooling[5].

Historical parallels from the recent June 21 heatwave, which pushed Central Park to 102°F and shattered all-time June records across Boston and Newark, frame how to read this current probability[4]. With June 2026 forecast highs ranging from 76°F to 97°F and an average high of 87°F, the market’s 100% confidence in the 82–83°F band aligns with the persistent pattern of extreme warmth observed in the preceding days, where similar ranges dominated outcomes for June 24 and 26[2][3].

Traders should monitor the upcoming weekend weather update from AccuWeather, which details whether the heatwave persists until Saturday, as light winds and strong sunshine are expected to maintain maximum daytime heating[4]. The critical dependency is the official Wunderground record for LaGuardia Airport at settlement, which will confirm if the heatwave’s intensity sustains the 82–83°F range or if a marginal shift occurs[6]. No moralising is needed; the facts indicate a near-certain outcome driven by the current atmospheric conditions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.