Highest temperature in Manila on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila is bracing for a humid July day with the settlement clock ticking toward noon UTC, yet the market currently assigns zero probability to any temperature outcome above the lowest bracket, a stark disconnect from seasonal norms. This 0% YES crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either misreading the resolution brackets or betting on an unprecedented cooling event, despite historical data showing July highs typically reaching 31°C with very high heat and humidity [3].

Historical patterns for mid-July in Manila consistently frame daytime maximums around 31°C, with overnight lows rarely dipping below 24°C [3]. Long-term averages indicate daily highs between 84°F and 90°F (approximately 29°C to 32°C), making a sub-25°C peak highly anomalous for this station [2]. The current pricing ignores that the market frontrunner on related platforms assigns a 41% chance to 29°C, with 28°C as the next likely outcome at 28%, suggesting the zero probability here may reflect a liquidity gap rather than genuine meteorological consensus [1].

Traders should monitor the immediate PAGASA extended weather outlook for Saturday, 11 July, which currently lists a maximum of 32°C for the region, alongside real-time updates from Wunderground as the day progresses [4]. The Southwest Monsoon affecting western Philippines could introduce cloud cover, but recent local reports show maximum temperatures hitting 32.9°C earlier in the week, reinforcing the likelihood of a warm day [5]. Watch for the 5 AM weather forecast update released today, as any sudden shift in monsoon intensity or cloud density will be the primary catalyst for price movement before the 12:00 UTC settlement [8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

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How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.