Highest temperature in London on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The latest read on London is a fairly ordinary late-summer profile rather than a heat-extreme setup: recent market commentary has centred on a most likely daytime maximum around 26°C, with 25°C and 27°C also drawing meaningful interest, and implied odds have clustered tightly rather than spreading into the high-20s or low-30s. For a midday-to-midnight settlement window that keys off London City Airport, that sort of distribution usually means the market is pricing a warm but not exceptional afternoon rather than a breakout plume of continental heat.[2]

Historically, London’s August 1 temperatures usually sit well below the thresholds that move these markets decisively. WeatherSpark puts the typical August 1 range in London at about 16°C to 23°C, while the city’s broader August record high is far above that, at 37.5°C, showing how rare truly hot outcomes are even in peak summer.[1][8] That framing helps explain why a 0% yes probability can persist if the listed yes outcome is tied to a high-temperature band that still looks far above the day’s expected maximum.

Traders should watch the same things forecasters use: the strength and position of any high-pressure ridge, whether southerly flow deepens or weakens through the afternoon, and cloud or sea-breeze effects that can trim the top end by a degree or two.[2] The key operational detail is that the market settles on the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport before the first datapoint for the following date is published, so late updates or revised observations can still matter until that cutoff.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.