Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 31?

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Market context

Hong Kong's weather on 31 May 2026 will be measured against the Hong Kong Observatory's daily maximum temperature record for that date. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that day, though resolution depends on the Observatory publishing its "Daily Extract" data, which typically becomes available within days of the observation period. Current market pricing reflects genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will contain the day's peak reading.

May represents late spring in Hong Kong, transitioning toward the summer monsoon season. Historical data shows May 31st maxima typically range between 28–32°C, though the Observatory's records document occasional outliers. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder market pending more granular meteorological guidance. Comparable late-May days in recent years have produced readings across the full spectrum of possible ranges, making historical clustering less predictive than forward-looking weather models.

The key dependency is the South China Sea monsoon system's intensity in late May 2026. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional meteorological services as spring progresses, particularly any advisories about heat waves or unusual pressure patterns. The Observatory publishes monthly climate summaries and seasonal outlooks that will provide concrete data points for refining probability estimates closer to the settlement date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.