Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field recorded a scorching 96.1°F high on 28 June 2026, shattering the 0% crowd-implied probability that temperatures would stay below 92°F. This realisation arrived just as the settlement window closed, confirming that the market’s frontrunner had been entirely mispriced. The 96°F peak aligns with the upper bound of AccuWeather’s June 2026 forecast, which predicted daily highs between 96° and 100° for Love Field[5].

Historical parallels from mid-June 2026 show similar volatility: on 17 June, the station hit 90–91°F with 100% market certainty, while 25 June saw 92–93°F dominate[1][2]. These cases frame why the 0% YES probability was flawed; Dallas routinely breaches 95°F in late June, with 2022’s record high of 100°F on 26 June serving as a stark reminder of summer extremes[4]. Traders should monitor Wunderground’s hourly updates for the next 24 hours, as the 6-hour high of 96.1°F on 28 June already exceeded the 6-hour low of 91.9°F[3].

The catalyst for this mispricing was likely delayed adoption of AccuWeather’s 96–100°F forecast, which explicitly warned of sustained heat[5]. Watch for National Weather Service bulletins on 29 June, as they may clarify whether the 96.1°F reading was an anomaly or part of a broader heatwave[6]. No moralising on trade decisions is needed; the facts show the market failed to account for Dallas’s predictable late-June temperature surge.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

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FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

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How fast are USDC deposits?

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Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.