Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s heat profile has not shifted much in the last 24–48 hours: the latest public forecasts still point to a hot, humid day with daytime highs around **31–35°C** and some rain or thunderstorms in the mix. Current forecast pages for Chengdu on 4 August show ranges such as **32°C/24°C** with patchy rain, or a **35°C** daytime maximum with rain chances later in the day, which leaves the top end of the market distribution anchored in the mid-30s rather than extreme heat.[1][4][17]

That framing matters because early August is typically Chengdu’s hottest period, with long-run August highs commonly around **30–32°C** and day-to-day outcomes often clustering in the low-to-mid 30s.[2][5][18] The current crowd-implied **0% YES** looks detached from those seasonal norms if the market’s YES outcomes are the higher temperature bands, but the exact settlement will turn on the single highest reading at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, not the citywide average.[14][15] In practical terms, a reading in the **34–35°C** area is well within historical and forecasted possibility.[3][11][17]

For traders, the main catalysts are the afternoon temperature peak, the timing of any showers or thunderstorms, and whether cloud cover suppresses the day’s maximum before the airport observation station updates its final figure. The market settles from Wunderground’s daily history for Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, and revisions can still matter until the first datapoint for the following day is published.[14] Any fresh forecast update showing stronger sun, weaker rain, or a hotter hour around mid-afternoon would be the key driver to watch.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.