Highest temperature in Beijing on June 4?

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Market context

Beijing's weather on 4 June 2026 will be shaped by the transition into early summer, when the city typically experiences warming ahead of the monsoon season. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature range or awaiting clearer atmospheric forecasts as the date approaches. June temperatures at Beijing Capital International Airport historically cluster between 25–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during heat waves driven by high-pressure systems moving northward from the subtropics.

Historical records show that early June in Beijing sits at the boundary between spring and summer conditions. The past decade's data reveals considerable year-to-year variation: some years see relatively mild highs around 26–28°C, whilst others experience sharp warming to 34°C or beyond when Tibetan anticyclones establish themselves. The 2023 early-June period recorded highs near 30°C, whilst 2022 saw peaks above 32°C. This variability explains why traders have assigned minimal conviction to any single temperature band at this stage.

The primary catalyst for market movement will be the emergence of reliable extended-range forecasts in late May, particularly from China's National Meteorological Centre and international models tracking upper-level pressure patterns. Solar activity and sea-surface temperatures in the Western Pacific will influence whether subtropical high-pressure systems push northward aggressively or remain suppressed. Traders should monitor any official heat-wave warnings issued by Beijing authorities in the week preceding 4 June, as these typically signal temperatures exceeding 35°C and would shift probability mass toward higher ranges.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.