Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam’s daytime warmth has only shifted modestly over the past 24–48 hours, with model-based and historical daily guides still pointing to a late-July high in the low 20s Celsius rather than anything extreme.[2][9] For this market, the key point is that the settlement source is the **Schiphol station’s recorded daily maximum**, so the question is not what the city feels like at the beach or in the centre, but the highest reading posted at the airport site by 12:00 UTC on 30 July.[1]

The crowd-implied **0% YES** is consistent with Amsterdam’s July climate profile: average highs are around 22°C, and even the warmer historical references for the month cluster near 30°C rather than the mid-30s or 40s.[7][11] Recent July data also show ordinary outcomes in the high teens to low 20s Celsius, with occasional spikes above 30°C but only rarely anything close to record heat.[8][12] That means a payout on a high temperature bucket well above the seasonal norm would usually require an exceptional warm advection setup, not a standard summer day.[5][7]

Traders should watch the short-range forecast trend for the Amsterdam–Schiphol area, especially any late-morning warm-up, sunshine intensity, and wind direction, because airport maxima often depend on whether cloud and marine influence break early enough to let temperatures rise before the settlement cut-off.[9][13] There are no market-moving official announcements, but the practical catalyst is the day-of weather evolution: a clear, drying morning can lift the odds of a higher bucket, while low cloud, showers, or onshore flow cap the maximum quickly.[1][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 30? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.