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Berlin State Election Winner

Live odds for "Berlin State Election Winner" pulled from the Polygon order book, alongside the platform attributes of every venue that runs this contract.

Linke 34% CDU 27% AfD 21% Grüne 14% Volume: $3.1M Liquidity: $356K Closes: 20 Sept 2026
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Berlin State Election Winner

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 34% 66% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 34% 66% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Linke34%
CDU27%
AfD21%
Grüne14%
SPD4%
FDP0%
FW0%
BSW0%
Party A0%
Party B0%
Party C0%
Party D0%
Party E0%
Party F0%
Party G0%
Party H0%
Party I0%
Party J0%
Party K0%
Party L0%
Party M0%
Party N0%
Party O0%
Other0%

Market context

Market consensus: 34% chance of berlin state election winner. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wi…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
David ParkDavid ParkSports Data AnalystandOliver HughesOliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

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