Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 24?

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Market context

Tokyo's weather pattern for late May has shifted cooler over the past 48 hours, with seasonal models now showing a potential low-pressure system moving through the Kanto region around 24 May. Current ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency suggest temperatures could dip into the mid-to-high teens Celsius, though the exact nadir remains uncertain given the lead time. The 8% probability assigned to the lowest temperature bracket reflects genuine uncertainty about whether conditions will be sufficiently cool to trigger resolution in that range.

Historically, Tokyo in late May rarely experiences temperatures below 15°C at Haneda Airport Station. Over the past two decades, the lowest recorded temperature on 24 May itself has been 16.2°C (in 2008), with most years clustering between 17–19°C. The current probability estimate appears calibrated to the tail-risk scenario where a spring cold front penetrates further south than typical, a pattern that occurs roughly once every five to ten years during this period.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency's extended forecasts released each Thursday and Sunday, particularly their 10-day outlooks issued after 26 April. Any significant revision toward colder air masses or confirmation of a low-pressure trough would shift the probability materially. Wunderground's historical data feed typically finalises within 24 hours of the settlement window closing, so the resolution source itself carries minimal execution risk once the calendar date passes.

Methodology

We track Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.