Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?

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Market context

Hong Kong opened the day with a hot, mostly fine start, and the latest forecasts have not shifted the basic picture: the city is still expected to stay very warm through the night, with only isolated showers or thunderstorms later. AccuWeather is showing an overnight low of 83°F, which is about 28.3°C, while the Hong Kong Observatory’s 9-day forecast puts today’s range at 28°C to 35°C, again pointing to a very warm minimum rather than anything close to a cool outlier.[2][4]

That is why the crowd’s 0% yes price for a low-temperature outcome is easy to understand, but it also reflects how tightly this market is framed. August in Hong Kong is typically one of the hottest and wettest periods of the year, with average lows around 25°C to 28°C and frequent humidity, rain, and thunderstorms, so the “lowest temperature” on a given day usually still sits well above temperate-weather standards.[8][12][13] The most relevant comparator is the Observatory’s own recent August pattern: 2024 was exceptionally hot, with a mean daily maximum of 32.3°C and a mean air temperature of 29.6°C, reinforcing how persistent summer warmth can be.[15]

For traders, the key catalysts are the Hong Kong Observatory’s updated short-range forecasts and, later, the final “Daily Extract” publication that fixes the official absolute daily minimum for settlement. The market cannot resolve until that extract is posted, so any late-night thunderstorm, cloud cover, or a modest shift in winds could matter at the margin, but the decisive dependency is the Observatory’s final published reading rather than third-party weather apps.[3][4][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

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