Highest temperature in Wellington on May 26?

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Market context

Wellington's maximum temperature on 26 May 2026 will be measured at the international airport station, with settlement determined by historical weather records from Wunderground. The current 0% probability assigned to this market reflects the settlement window closing at midday on the day itself, leaving minimal trading window once actual conditions materialise. May in Wellington typically sees autumn temperatures ranging from 8–15°C, though daily highs occasionally reach 18–20°C during mild spells.

Historical data from Wellington Airport shows May maxima rarely exceed 20°C, with the month's average high around 13°C. The 0% probability across all temperature bands suggests traders are awaiting clearer meteorological forecasts before committing positions. May 2026 falls within New Zealand's autumn season, when high-pressure systems occasionally deliver warmer days, but cold fronts from the south are equally common. Comparable May days at Wellington Airport have produced highs ranging from single digits during southerly outbreaks to low twenties during rare warm spells.

The critical dependency is the Southern Hemisphere autumn weather pattern establishing itself in the weeks preceding late May. MetService and NIWA forecasts issued in early May will provide the first substantive guidance on whether anticyclonic or frontal systems will dominate the region. Traders should monitor these agencies' monthly outlooks from April onwards, as they typically signal whether the last week of May will experience settled conditions or unsettled weather. The settlement window's brevity—closing at noon on the day itself—means this market will likely see activity concentrated in the final 24 hours once morning observations confirm the trajectory.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

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Do I need to KYC for this market?

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