Highest temperature in Wellington on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Wellington's maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at the international airport station and resolved against historical weather data. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the full daily high must be captured before resolution. No significant shifts in market positioning have occurred in the past 48 hours, with the 0% crowd probability reflecting genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will materialise rather than information scarcity.

May in Wellington typically sees daily highs between 13–16°C, with the airport station historically recording maxima in this range during late autumn. The 2025 May average high was 14.8°C; comparable years show little variation beyond 2–3°C from this baseline. Extreme readings above 20°C or below 10°C are rare for this date and location, occurring in fewer than 5% of years on record. The current probability distribution suggests traders are pricing in a narrow band around the seasonal norm rather than tail outcomes.

The MetService five-day forecast for Wellington, updated daily, will be the primary reference point for traders monitoring atmospheric patterns through late May 2026. Subtropical systems occasionally push northward into New Zealand's lower North Island during autumn, though such events typically occur earlier in the season. Sea surface temperatures around Cook Strait and upper-air wind patterns in the fortnight preceding 25 May will determine whether conditions favour above or below-average warmth. Traders should monitor the 10–14 day outlook from mid-May onward for any signals of anomalous pressure systems.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.