Highest temperature in Wellington on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s mid-July climate rarely produces extreme heat, and the 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific high-temperature outcome on 13 July 2026 reflects a market expecting temperatures to fall outside the listed ranges or for no resolution to occur within the defined brackets. Historical data for Wellington International Airport shows July maximums averaging 13.2°C, with typical daily highs clustering between 11°C and 15°C under normal high-pressure conditions [5]. Comparable prediction markets for early July in Wellington—such as the 13°C outcome on 2 July, which held 53.5% implied probability—demonstrate that the modal temperature aligns closely with the long-term average, reinforcing why outlier outcomes carry negligible odds [1].

Traders should monitor the latest MetService New Zealand forecast for Wellington, as the final pre-day outlook is the primary catalyst for temperature shifts in mid-July [1]. A weak high-pressure ridge would sustain near-average highs around 13°C, while an active frontal pattern could depress temperatures below 11°C. No major weather announcements are scheduled beyond routine daily updates, but any sudden shift in wind direction or cloud cover from the Tasman Sea could alter the day’s peak reading. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 13 July, meaning all volatility compresses into the final hours before resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.