Highest temperature in Wellington on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

A cool southerly regime has taken hold around Wellington, with the latest local forecast pointing to showers easing and daytime highs near 10–11°C rather than anything materially warmer. Winds are a key feature as well: MetService and station data show brisk to fresh southerlies, which usually cap afternoon warming and make a sharp late-day spike less likely.

That makes the current 0% yes price easier to read: it is consistent with a market expecting the airport’s Daily Observations maximum to stay in the low teens or below. August in Wellington often produces maximums around 10–12°C, so a single-digit or low-teen outcome fits the seasonal pattern, while the higher temperature bands need unusual clearing, weaker wind, or a brief warm slot.

For traders, the main catalysts are the timing of showers, any change in southerly strength, and the first few Daily Observations updates from Wellington Intl Airport before the 12:00Z settlement window closes. The key dependency is the station record itself rather than the summary view, so late-morning readings matter most if there is any disagreement between spot conditions and the day-high display.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on August 18? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

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