Highest temperature in Wellington on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington's maximum temperature on 14 August 2026 will be determined by the strength of any southerly flow pushing up the North Island during mid-winter. The current 0% probability assigned to higher temperature ranges reflects typical August conditions in the capital, where daily highs average around 11–12°C and rarely exceed 15°C during the coldest month. Recent atmospheric patterns show a relatively stable anticyclone positioned east of New Zealand, which would favour lighter winds and cooler overnight minima, though daytime heating remains the primary driver of any upward temperature movement.

Historical August records for Wellington Airport show that temperatures above 18°C occur in roughly 5–10% of years, typically when warm northerly air masses penetrate ahead of approaching frontal systems. The highest August temperature on record stands at 20.3°C (set in 1944), though modern observations from the past two decades suggest peaks cluster between 16–19°C on warmer-than-average days. The resolution methodology specified—using the Daily Observations table rather than summary figures—may introduce minor variance from casual weather reporting, as sub-hourly readings can occasionally differ from rounded daily highs.

Traders should monitor the Southern Oscillation Index and sea surface temperature anomalies across the Tasman Sea in the weeks preceding mid-August, as these influence whether subtropical air reaches Wellington or if cooler southern systems dominate. Metservice forecasts issued in early August will provide the most actionable signal, particularly any indication of a northerly quarter wind event during the settlement window.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on August 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

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On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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