Highest temperature in Wellington on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington has started August on the cool side, with the airport station’s daily highs so far mostly in the low-to-mid teens Celsius and only one notably warmer reading, 61°F on 3 August, from the Weather Underground monthly history. That matters for this market because the contract resolves from the **highest temperature recorded** in the Daily Observations table, not the summary high, so a brief warmer spike later in the day would be enough to shift the outcome even if the broader daily range stays winter-like.[7]

For context, August in Wellington is normally one of the city’s colder months, with typical mean maximum temperatures around 12.9°C and average August highs near 12°C; recent history also shows that daily highs can vary by several degrees from one day to the next, but the upper end usually stays in the mid-teens unless a mild northerly flow arrives.[14][1] That makes the current 0% implied YES price consistent with a market that is looking for an uncommonly warm reading rather than the seasonal norm.[6][14]

The main catalyst to watch is the airport’s intraday temperature path rather than any scheduled announcement, because this is a pure observations market and the final print comes from the Weather Underground Daily Observations table through the settlement window. Traders should watch for any late-morning or afternoon warmth at Wellington Intl Airport, especially if winds ease or a warmer air mass briefly reaches the site; by contrast, cloud, southerly flow and showers would tend to cap the day’s high closer to the low-teens range already typical for August.[7][14][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.