Highest temperature in Wellington on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington has been running on its usual winter pattern over the past day or two: cool, changeable, and well below the kind of warmth needed for an unusually high August reading at Wellington Airport. August averages for the city sit around 11–13°C for daytime highs, with climatology sources putting the month’s typical maximum near 12°C and historical August highs generally in the low teens.[1][3][4]

That makes a **0% Yes** price understandable, because the market only resolves if the day’s maximum lands in the specified temperature band and Wellington’s winter record is still modest by regional standards. Comparable August data show the city’s monthly record high is only 15.8°C in one climate summary, while another source cites an August record of 61°F, or about 16°C, which is still far above the monthly norm and therefore uncommon rather than impossible.[4][6] In practice, the market is reading against a baseline of frequent single-digit lows and average highs around 12°C, not against summer-style extremes.[1][2][18]

For traders, the main catalysts are the late-shift weather details for Wellington Airport: cloud breaks, a brief northerly wind, or a dry downslope spell can lift the afternoon maximum, while rainbands and stronger southerlies usually cap it quickly. The settlement source is the Wunderground history page for Wellington Intl Airport Station, so the relevant watchpoint is the station’s highest temperature through the local day rather than a citywide average or nearby suburb reading.[13][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on August 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.