Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Warsaw's weather on 27 July 2026 will determine which temperature band captures the day's high at Chopin Airport. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning the market resolves based on the maximum temperature recorded across the full calendar day at the official monitoring station. Current crowd pricing reflects extreme uncertainty, with no meaningful probability mass assigned to any specific range.

July temperatures in Warsaw typically peak between 20–27°C, though heat waves occasionally push readings above 30°C. Historical data from the past decade shows that extreme highs—exceeding 32°C—occur roughly once every three to four summers in the region. The 2023 summer saw several days above 30°C in late July, whilst cooler patterns in 2021 kept peaks closer to 22–24°C. These precedents suggest the eventual resolution will likely fall within a moderate-to-warm range rather than at the extremes either direction.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting updates from mid-July onwards, particularly pressure systems tracking across Central Europe. The Polish Institute of Meteorology typically issues extended outlooks two weeks in advance; any significant high-pressure system developing over the continent would shift probability towards warmer outcomes. Conversely, Atlantic low-pressure systems or cloud cover from northern disturbances would favour cooler ranges. The settlement source—Wunderground's historical data for EPWA station—updates daily and remains the definitive reference once 27 July arrives.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 27? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.