Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 26?

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Market context

Tokyo's weather on 26 May 2026 will be measured against historical May patterns at Haneda Airport, where late spring typically brings warm but not extreme conditions. The settlement relies on the single highest temperature recorded across all hours that day, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's historical data for Haneda's official station. No significant meteorological shifts have emerged in the past 48 hours that would alter seasonal expectations for this date.

May temperatures at Tokyo Haneda historically cluster in the 22–28°C range, with occasional peaks toward 30°C during warmer years. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer atmospheric forecasts or treating this as a placeholder market pending seasonal pattern confirmation. Comparable May 26 records from recent decades show variability driven by early tsuyu (rainy season) onset and high-pressure systems moving across the Kanto region, making any single-day prediction inherently uncertain at this remove.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency updates as May approaches, particularly any announcements regarding early monsoon activity or heat dome formation over the Pacific. Haneda's urban location and proximity to Tokyo Bay mean local heat-island effects can elevate readings 1–2°C above surrounding areas, a factor worth tracking in seasonal forecasts. The settlement window closes at midday on 26 May, allowing only morning observations to influence final resolution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

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