Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 25?

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Market context

Tokyo's weather on 25 May 2026 will depend heavily on the transition into Japan's early rainy season, which typically begins in early June but can arrive ahead of schedule. Late May temperatures at Haneda Airport Station historically range between 22–28°C, though anomalously warm systems pushing north from the Pacific can drive readings into the low 30s. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature thresholds offered or expect conditions to remain within typical seasonal bounds rather than reaching extreme heat.

Comparable May weather patterns show that Tokyo experiences variable conditions during this period. In May 2023, the city recorded a high of 28.8°C on the 25th; in 2022, it reached 26.1°C on the same date. These precedents indicate that mid-to-high 20s are the modal outcome, though the range between years demonstrates meaningful variability. Traders should note that early-season heatwaves do occur—May 2019 saw temperatures exceed 30°C on multiple days—making extreme heat plausible but not dominant.

The Japan Meteorological Agency will publish its official May forecast in late April, providing the first systematic signal for seasonal anomalies. Sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific and the position of the subtropical high-pressure system will be the primary drivers; warmer-than-normal waters favour above-average May temperatures. Traders should monitor late-April forecasts and any emerging El Niño or La Niña signals, which influence Japanese weather patterns on monthly timescales. Current climate models will become more reliable as May approaches.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.