Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 23?

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Market context

Tokyo's weather on 23 May 2026 will depend heavily on whether late spring atmospheric patterns shift toward early monsoon influence or remain dominated by high-pressure systems typical of mid-May. The settlement window closes at noon local time, capturing only the morning and early afternoon peak, which narrows the temperature range considerably compared to a full 24-hour window. No significant weather alerts or unusual atmospheric conditions have been flagged in the last 48 hours that would suggest an anomalous event on that specific date.

Historical May temperatures at Tokyo Haneda show a median high of around 24–26°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 30°C before late May transitions into early June patterns. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a narrow range outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful positions. Comparable years with similar atmospheric setups—such as May 2019 and May 2023—recorded highs between 23–27°C at Haneda, providing a reasonable baseline for assessing whether the market's current pricing reflects genuine consensus or simply low engagement.

The Japan Meteorological Agency's extended forecasts, updated weekly through May, will be the primary catalyst for position shifts. Traders should monitor late-April and early-May seasonal pattern announcements, particularly any signals of early tsuyu (rainy season) onset, which would suppress daytime highs. Wunderground's historical data feed remains the sole authoritative source for settlement, making real-time verification against that platform essential as the date approaches.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.