Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 22?

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Market context

Tokyo is set for a cool, cloudy finish to the day, with the latest guidance still pointing to a maximum near 16°C at Haneda. That leaves very little room for a late surge in temperature, especially with light precipitation and northerly flow limiting daytime heating. With the settlement window already over and the market showing 0% for yes, the remaining question is whether the final airport reading lands in the 15°C-16°C band or nudges one degree either side.

The present setup fits the lower end of Tokyo’s May range more closely than the typical spring norm. Late-May highs in the city usually run nearer the low 20s Celsius, but grey skies and rain-bearing air masses can hold Haneda in the mid-teens, which is consistent with similar overcast May days. In practical terms, a forecast of 16°C implies the market is concentrated in the range most often seen on unsettled spring afternoons rather than on the milder, sunnier days that dominate the month.

The main variables to watch are the final hourly observations at Tokyo Haneda Airport and any short-term model update from the Japan Meteorological Agency. There are no major scheduled events that would affect the reading directly; the outcome depends almost entirely on cloud cover, showers, and wind direction through the afternoon. Wunderground’s daily history page is the resolution source, so the relevant catalyst is whether the final posted high is locked in at 16°C or revises to 15°C, 17°C, or another adjacent band before the day’s data is finalised.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.