Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s July 7 high temperature has dropped to a 0% chance of staying below 27°C in the last 24 hours, as lingering tsuyu frontal activity has stalled and clear skies are now forecast for Haneda Airport. This shift marks a decisive break from the damp, low-pressure conditions that previously kept maximums suppressed, pushing the day’s expected peak firmly into the 28–35°C range.

Historically, early July in Tokyo sees daily highs averaging 29°C (84°F), with the first half of the month typically hovering near 30°C before climbing to 35°C by mid-month[3]. In 2026, Haneda’s forecasted highs range from 79°F to 91°F (26–33°C), with an average of 87°F (31°C)[1]. The current 0% probability aligns with these norms, as 27°C would be unusually cool for this date unless a stalled low-pressure system persisted—something now ruled out by updated forecasts.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s 3-day forecast issued 6 July, which confirms a daily normal maximum of 29.2°C for 7 July[8]. Additionally, JAL’s flight information notes potential delays on 7 July due to weather, suggesting atmospheric instability may still affect local conditions[6]. With no further frontal activity expected, the catalyst for a temperature drop below 27°C is effectively absent.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.