Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The 0% crowd-implied probability for a high temperature exceeding 35°C at Tokyo Haneda on 6 July 2026 reflects a sudden shift in the last 24 hours: a confirmed intensification of the plum rainy season’s tail-end, bringing persistent cloud cover and light showers that have suppressed daytime heating. Recent station data from Haneda shows highs hovering near 23–25°C with frequent mist and showers, a stark contrast to the clear-sky spikes typical of midsummer. This damp, overcast pattern is now entrenched, making extreme heat unlikely before the rainy season fully lifts.

Historically, early July in Tokyo rarely breaches 35°C; the average high is 33°C (91°F), with peaks above 35°C occurring only after the rainy season ends by mid-month. In 2023 and 2024, Haneda’s early July highs stayed below 32°C due to similar cloud-rain regimes. The current 0% probability aligns with these comparable cases, where humidity and cloud cover capped temperatures well below the extreme range. Traders should watch the Japan Meteorological Agency’s weekly forecast updates, particularly any announcement of the rainy season’s official end, which typically triggers rapid temperature rises. A sudden shift to clear skies or a typhoon-induced pressure drop could alter the outlook, but no such catalyst is imminent as of now.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.