Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s heatwave has shifted dramatically in the last 48 hours, with the city charting temperatures above 35°C for five consecutive days in June—a record streak since 1990—before a sharp cooling trend emerged as showers moved in for July 5. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES for extreme heat reflects this sudden pivot, as forecast models now predict maximum temperatures of just 25°C for today, a stark contrast to the 28°C average high typical for early July. This cooling is driven by a stationary weather front bringing persistent rain and high humidity, which suppresses daytime heating despite the lingering warmth of the season.

Historically, early July in Tokyo sees average highs around 28°C, but comparable cases from 2023 and 2024 show that when a rainy front coincides with the start of the month, temperatures can drop to 21–23°C, aligning with today’s 0% probability for extreme heat. The market’s frontrunner on Polymarket for July 5 is 27°C at 54%, yet this contradicts the immediate forecast of 25°C, suggesting traders may be overreacting to June’s record heat rather than the current meteorological shift. The discrepancy highlights how quickly sentiment can lag behind real-time weather changes, especially when a front brings sudden cooling.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s updated forecasts for Hokkaido and Tohoku, which now predict above-normal temperatures arriving from July 5 onward, potentially reversing the cooling trend by mid-week. The activation of the Extreme Weather Early Warning system for northern Japan and the approach of Super Typhoon Bavi—now a Category 5 storm with 55 m/s winds—could disrupt local weather patterns, though its impact on Tokyo remains uncertain. Recent reports confirm that humidity will prevent effective body cooling, increasing heatstroke risk even at moderate temperatures, a critical factor for those assessing the market’s 0% probability for extreme heat.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.