Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's weather on 28 July 2026 will be measured against historical July patterns for the city, with the highest temperature recorded at Haneda Airport Station serving as the settlement benchmark. Late July typically marks the peak of Tokyo's summer heat, with average daily highs around 32–33°C, though extreme readings above 35°C occur in roughly one-third of years during this period. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder market pending meteorological data closer to the date.

Historical context shows Tokyo's July temperature distribution is heavily skewed towards the 30–35°C range. Since 2010, readings above 37°C on any single July day have been rare but not unprecedented; the city recorded 37.5°C on 23 July 2019 and 37.0°C on 16 July 2013. Conversely, cooler July days with highs below 28°C are exceptional and typically follow typhoon systems or unusual atmospheric patterns. This baseline matters because it frames what constitutes an outlier outcome versus routine summer conditions.

The key variable traders should monitor is the positioning of the Pacific high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity in late July 2026. Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks, typically issued monthly, will provide the first substantive signal for temperature expectations in the weeks preceding settlement. Haneda Airport's location near Tokyo Bay also means sea-surface temperatures and wind patterns from the ocean will influence daily maximums more than inland stations would.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.