Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo has started the day with a forecast that is warm but not extreme, and the latest official outlook from the Japan Meteorological Agency points to a high of about 33°C for central Tokyo, with cloud, sun and a risk of afternoon thunder before evening rain. That combination keeps the market’s current 0% yes price understandable: the event only pays if the day’s peak at Haneda lands in a specific temperature band, and the early-morning setup does not yet point to a sharp break from normal summer heat.[2]

For context, Tokyo in late July usually sits in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius at the top end, with July averages around 84°F/29°C and forecast highs this month generally ranging from 79°F to 88°F.[1][9] Weather history for Tokyo in July also shows that highs can occasionally overshoot the mid-30s Celsius, but more often sit near the low 30s when cloud cover, showers or sea-breeze effects limit heating.[9][10] In that frame, a band tied to the single highest reading of the day is most sensitive to whether the city gets a clean sunny run-up before storms or rain interrupt the afternoon warming.[10]

The main catalysts to watch are the daytime forecast updates, thunderstorm timing and any shift in cloud cover or rainfall around the midday-to-afternoon period, when Tokyo normally reaches its peak temperature. FNN’s latest forecast explicitly flags possible thunder from the afternoon and rain later in the day, which would cap the maximum if it arrives early enough.[2] For settlement, the key source is the Wunderground history page for Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, so short-lived spikes, station-level conditions and the precise timing of rain or convective cloud can matter more than the broader city forecast.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.