Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s daytime heat is running close to seasonal August levels, with the official forecast around **32°C** for the city today and similar highs across the surrounding area.[3][9][10] That leaves the market’s 0% YES print looking detached from the live weather setup rather than from a lack of summer heat: Tokyo routinely sits around **31°C** average highs in August, but the actual settlement here depends on the single highest reading at Haneda rather than the city average.[9][10]

Recent comparable cases show how quickly this kind of market can move once the day gets going. Tokyo’s official August daily maxima have already reached the mid-to-high 30s in early-month readings elsewhere in the prefecture, while the broader market has recently resolved a Tokyo high at **29°C** on 4 August, underscoring that sub-30 outcomes are possible when cloud or rain suppresses the afternoon peak.[1][17] For a Haneda-based contract, coastal influence can matter, but a sunny, low-wind afternoon still leaves room for a lift above the low-30s if heating builds through late morning.[1][3]

What traders should watch now is the progression of the daytime forecast, especially any shift in cloud cover, precipitation chances, or onshore wind that could cap the peak temperature before the settlement window closes.[2][3] The key dependency is the actual maximum reported for Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on Wunderground, so any late-morning forecast revision or nowcast update that moves the expected high by even 1°C can reshape which bucket is in play.[6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.