Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo is already hot early this morning, and the main change over the last 24–48 hours is that the midday forecast has stayed firmly in the low-to-mid 30s rather than easing off. Hourly guidance for Tokyo points from the low 80s °F before dawn to around 91°F by midday, which translates to a clear run at a high in the 30s °C if the heat builds as expected.[5] That matters for this market because the settlement is based on the single highest temperature recorded at Haneda Airport Station before the window closes, so the relevant question is not whether Tokyo feels hot, but whether the day reaches 33°C, 34°C or higher at any point.[3][5]

The broader seasonal frame still points to a hot outcome. Tokyo’s August average maximum is about 31°C, with many summer days running above 30°C and humidity keeping conditions oppressive.[8][9][10] Recent summer weather has also featured major heat spikes across Japan, including Tokyo’s own 36.4°C high earlier in the season, which shows that the upper end of the distribution is live when Pacific High conditions dominate.[11][12] Against that backdrop, a 0% crowd price for YES looks inconsistent with the climatology and with the current forecast profile, unless clouds, rain or sea-breeze effects limit the peak much more than expected.[2][5]

Traders should watch the timing of afternoon convection, any late-morning cloud build-up, and whether a shower band reaches central Tokyo before the daily maximum is printed.[2][5] Because the market settles on the Wunderground daily history page for Haneda, the key dependency is the official recorded maximum for that station rather than what nearby Tokyo forecast points show.[3] If the city stays mostly sunny through early afternoon, the highest reading is likely to be set in the same heat range that has dominated August forecasting for Tokyo all week.[2][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.