Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's weather on 13 August 2026 will be shaped by the typical patterns of Japan's peak summer season, when the metropolitan area regularly experiences temperatures in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that the day will fall within a specific temperature band, though without visibility on which exact range this market resolves to, the current odds reflect substantial uncertainty about the settlement mechanics rather than meteorological confidence.

Historical August data from Tokyo Haneda Airport shows the station records daily highs averaging 32–34°C during mid-August, with extremes occasionally reaching 36–37°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 2010 heat wave pushed temperatures to 39.9°C, whilst more recent summers have seen peaks around 35–36°C. These benchmarks matter because the resolution source—Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary—can occasionally diverge, introducing a technical layer to how the market settles.

The Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal forecasts, typically updated in early August, will be the key catalyst traders should monitor. Broader Pacific weather patterns, including the position of the Tibetan high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity in the region, will drive whether mid-August 2026 tracks toward typical summer conditions or an anomalous heat event. Current global climate models remain too distant to offer precision, making the next 12–18 months of seasonal updates critical for refining expectations.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.