Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo has already started the day in very warm conditions, with nearby history pages showing around 84–86°F by late morning and an average August high close to 89–90°F, so the market is effectively asking whether the airport station’s daily maximum stays in the low 30s Celsius or pushes higher. The 0% YES crowd price looks hard to reconcile with Tokyo’s August climate, where daily highs on 10 August have often sat in the mid-to-high 30s°C in recent years, including 34.4°C in 2023, 34.9°C in 2024 and 35.2°C in 2020 on comparable historical records for the date.[2][4]

The key guide for traders is that this contract resolves off the Weather Underground Daily Observations table for Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, not the summary high/low box, so intraday updates matter more than headline forecasts. In similar August heat regimes, the day’s peak often arrives in the afternoon after temperatures have already climbed through the morning, which means the range can still move if sunshine holds and sea-breeze effects are limited.[2][5] The main catalysts to watch are the site’s timestamped observations through the afternoon local time, plus any nearby weather changes that could cap heating, such as cloud cover, showers or a stronger onshore wind; those are the variables most likely to decide which Celsius band contains the final high.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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