Highest temperature in Taipei on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei's weather on 25 July 2026 will depend heavily on the monsoon pattern and any tropical systems active in the western Pacific during late July. The settlement window closes at midday local time, capturing only the morning and early afternoon peak. Recent shifts in the jet stream positioning and sea surface temperatures across the region will determine whether the city experiences typical summer heat or anomalous conditions that day.

Historical records from Taipei Songshan Airport show July temperatures consistently peak between 33–37°C, with extreme readings occasionally exceeding 38°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either confidence in moderate conditions or uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve. Comparable late-July days from the past decade provide the most relevant baseline, as monsoon intensity and timing vary considerably year to year.

The key variable to monitor is tropical cyclone activity in the Philippine Sea and any westward track toward Taiwan in the weeks preceding 25 July. The Central Weather Administration's extended forecasts, typically issued 10–14 days ahead, will offer the first concrete signals about atmospheric setup. Additionally, any unusual warming patterns reported across East Asia in early July could signal sustained heat that carries through to the settlement date. Traders should cross-reference Wunderground's historical data for comparable years to calibrate expectations against the available temperature bands.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.