Highest temperature in Taipei on July 13?

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Market context

Rain showers and thunderstorms sweeping Taipei Songshan Airport overnight have suppressed daytime heating prospects, driving the crowd-implied probability for any extreme high temperature to 0% as traders assess the immediate cloud cover and precipitation. Forecasts indicate moderate to near-50% precipitation chances through the morning, with temperatures peaking only around 29.7°C (90°F) rather than the scorching levels required for the upper ranges [1][10]. The presence of a UV index of 9 suggests potential for heat if skies clear, but the current 65% chance of precipitation in the early hours creates a significant barrier to record-breaking highs [1].

Historical data for mid-July at this station shows average highs near 30°C, with July being the hottest month overall at an average high of 92°F (33.3°C), making outcomes above 35°C rare without a sustained heatwave and clear skies [3][8]. The current market pricing, where 34°C holds a 37% probability and 35°C sits at 34%, reflects a baseline expectation of typical summer warmth rather than an anomaly, yet the immediate weather disruption has temporarily invalidated the highest range bets [2]. Traders should monitor the Central Weather Administration’s hourly updates for the 07/12 to 07/13 transition, specifically watching for the cessation of rain showers by afternoon which could allow temperatures to climb toward the 34°C threshold [6]. The key catalyst remains the afternoon forecast shift from light rain to fair conditions; if clouds persist, the day will likely cap below 32°C, confirming the current low probability for extreme outcomes [9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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FAQ

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