Highest temperature in Taipei on August 2?

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Market context

Taipei’s heat profile has not shifted much in the last day: the market still prices a peak in the **36–37°C** band, with **37°C** the front-runner at 37% and **36°C** close behind at 33%.[2] That distribution makes sense for early August, when Taipei typically sits in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with the city’s urban heat and humidity often pushing the daytime maximum a little above the monthly average.[3][12][14]

For context, the current crowd position is not a broad “hot” view so much as a fairly tight call on the exact afternoon peak. Historical August norms for Taipei usually cluster around the low 30s, while travel and climate guides commonly put August highs near 32–34°C and note frequent humidity and occasional rain.[3][7][12][14] A 0% yes price would only be defensible if traders expect either a cooler, cloudier day or a measurement that lands outside the quoted band, but the present spread suggests the market is treating an ordinary hot-season outcome as the base case.[2][3]

The main catalyst over the next few hours is the actual midday to late-afternoon weather evolution at Songshan, especially cloud build-up, sea-breeze effects, and any passing showers, because small changes can move the observed maximum by 1°C either way. Forecast services currently show a hot August pattern rather than a sharp cool-down, and one forecast source points to about 35–36°C for Taipei on 2 August.[1][2] Traders will also be watching whether any typhoon-related moisture or heavier rain appears in local forecasts, since that is the most plausible route to a materially lower high.[14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

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FAQ

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